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Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.
Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America
US stocks could be stuck in quicksand for the rest of 2024 despite robust earnings growth, but investors shouldn't panic. Wall Street expects double-digit earnings growth in 2024. The consensus estimate for S&P 500 profits is about $244, which would be up from $220 in 2023. The so-called SMID-cap cohort lagged its larger peers again in the first quarter, posting a solid 7.6% total return, while the S&P 500 surged 10.6%, including dividends. Six sell-side research analysts cover the typical stock in the SMID-cap S&P 1000 index compared to 17 analysts for the average S&P 500 member, Belski wrote.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel Organizations: Business, BMO Capital Markets, BMO
Evercore ISISurprisingly strong economic growth will fuel a 5.5% year-over-year jump in corporate earnings this quarter, according to Evercore. That would be well above analysts' consensus of about 3% but below the nearly 8% growth rate in Q4. 8 stocks set to outperform soonThough US stocks broadly may be in for a rough ride, stock-pickers shouldn't get too worried. To help with the search, Emanuel and company highlighted eight stocks set to outperform during the Q1 earnings season. Below are the eight companies listed in alphabetical order along with their ticker, market capitalization, sector, expected earnings release date, year-to-date earnings revision, and expected earnings growth rate relative to their sector peers.
Persons: , Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, recalculate, Evercore, Emanuel's, didn't, shouldn't, Zscaler Organizations: Service, ISI, Business, PPG Industries
Read previewAlthough US stocks have been all the rage this year, a top-performing fund manager remains convinced that the most compelling investing opportunities are in international equities. Its 80% gain over the past five years is more than double that of the STOXX Europe 600 and is six-fold above the 13% return of Vanguard's Total International Stock Index ETF (VXUS). The Brandes International Equity Fund has been in the top 10% of its category in the last 10 years, according to Morningstar, which includes a top-1% finish in 2023. AdvertisementOnce the fund manager finds stocks that fit this bill, he thinks more like a business owner than a stock trader. Of all the opportunities in international markets, Germain is especially drawn to four stocks across various countries and industries.
Persons: , Jeff Germain, Germain, David Kelly, Brandes, He's, " Germain, Royce Organizations: Service, Vanguard's, Stock, Business, Brandes Investment Partners, Brandes International Equity Fund, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Heidelberg, Embraer, Royce, Heineken Locations: German, Brazil, Britain
However, WBD's upcoming reboot of the DC universe may help move the needle for Max, according to Bank of America lead media analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich. AdvertisementWBD is now rebooting its superhero franchise with the DC Universe, or DCU for short, which will have films with interconnected storylines like Marvel has. Reif Ehrlich said new DC films and series could be cross-sold across Max, cable, and free, ad-supported streaming TV channels. AdvertisementAlthough WBD's cable channels are suffering as millions of US households cut the cord, Reif Ehrlich said this dual-distribution method is an effective marketing mechanism. "WBD can employ this same playbook to promote the launch of the new DC universe and other high-value content," Reif Ehrlich wrote.
Persons: , WBD's, HBO Max, Max, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, WBD, Marvel, James Gunn —, Reif Ehrlich, Kate Taylor, David Zaslav Organizations: Service, Warner Bros, Netflix, HBO, Warners, Nielsen, Business, Bank of America, Disney, Marvel, DC, DCU, Max, Hollywood, HGTV, Food Network
Read previewGoldman Sachs analysts kicked off the new month and quarter by revealing their favorite investing ideas. AdvertisementHow to successfully select stocksThe directors' cut list consists of 20 to 25 stocks beloved by Goldman's research analysts. But a promising outlook alone isn't enough to make the directors' cut list. Kron and company also look for stocks that Goldman Sachs analysts are more bullish about than their peers are. AdvertisementBelow are the 22 companies on the "directors' cut" version of Goldman Sachs' US conviction stock list.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Steven Kron, Kron, Chris Hussey, John Marshall, Stocks Organizations: Service, Business, Goldman, Citigroup, Royal Caribbean Cruises, TPG, Blue Owl, TE, Chevron
Read previewHistory says US stocks' idyllic start to the year is sustainable, as does the chief global strategist at $2.9 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management. Advertisement"The market has momentum, and so good times beget good times," Kelly told Business Insider in a recent interview. JPMorgan Asset Management"There is a certain amount of fluff in those valuations, and I think that is somewhat dangerous," Kelly said. JPMorgan Asset ManagementOutside equities, Kelly said investors should consider adding exposure to alternative assets like real estate and transportation. "The overall buffet table of investment opportunities is being expanded, even for individual investors," Kelly said.
Persons: , David Kelly, Kelly, David Rosenberg, Jon Wolfenbarger, Rosenberg, Kelly doesn't, it's, Kelly didn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bulls, Apple, JPMorgan, Management, Companies, Nikkei, P Transportation, Trust Nasdaq Transportation Locations: Truist, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan
Why NBC could be a perfect fit for the NBABarring a major upset, ESPN and WBD will continue to broadcast NBA games. The network used to broadcast NBA games nationally starting in 1954, and Comcast still shows games on its regional-sports networks in five markets. Comcast-subsidiary Sky Sports also aired NBA games in the United Kingdom for four years starting in 2019. Moffett, the media analyst and MoffettNathanson cofounder, told BI he sees NBC entering the bidding war for NBA media rights if only to assist its streamer. Unlike ESPN and TNT, NBC doesn't necessarily need NBA games.
Persons: it's, supercharge Peacock, Peacock, Craig Moffett, Nielsen, That's, Will, Moffett, Joseph Bonner, WBD's, Bonner Organizations: NBA, ESPN, Warner Bros, TNT, Business, Apple, Netflix, NBC, Comcast, WBD, Diamond Sports, NFL, Premier League, Sky Sports, Moffett, BI, Argus Research, Disney, Fox, Google Locations: United Kingdom
For a while, Kelly couldn't figure out whether there would be a recession, given how mixed signals were muddying the waters. Most economists now agree that there won't be a downturn, but one of the main explanations Kelly gave as to why may be shocking. Besides adding jobs, which tends to boost economic growth, Kelly noted that the presence of cheap workers has kept a lid on wage growth and, by extension, inflation. "But you could say that it has widened the runway for the soft landing. It's made it easier for us to achieve a soft landing."
Persons: Kelly couldn't, Kelly, , he's Organizations: Management, US Department of Homeland Security, Pew Research Center
However, as the chart below shows, one-bedroom apartments were 0.5% cheaper than they were last year while two-bedroom places were 0.8% more expensive. 15 cities where rent is decliningApartments across the country generally got more expensive in March, Zumper's report found, though there are some notable exceptions. Two-thirds of the top-100 US real estate markets had higher rent compared to last month while 19 cities were flat, Zumper researchers noted. However, more than a dozen metropolitan areas — many of which were in the Southwest or South regions — actually became cheaper to rent in. Along with each are its month-over-month and year-over-year rent changes, average rent price, and national rent ranking among the largest 100 cities in the US.
Persons: shouldn't, PqameYEcoP — James Faris, @JamesFaris_, it's, Anthemos Georgiades, there's, Zumper, Zumper's Organizations: Business, Zumper, CPI Locations: Realtor.com, Southwest
Buying a house now makes less financial sense than renting, according to Realtor.com. Here are 29 cities where renting is less costly relative to buying. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: , Realtor.com Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Realtor.com
"And I sort of look at the stock market right now as that clown of the circus blowing up the balloon." That earnings multiple is based on future earnings prospects, the economy, and interest rates. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the yield curve steepens, he said big banks should bring opportunities. "There will be areas to dip your toes in, but not for the overall market," Rosenberg said. He's bullish on long-term bonds and gold as the Fed cuts interest rates.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, he'll, they've, It's, " Rosenberg, he's, He's Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity, Federal Reserve, Nikkei Locations: Japan
Plus, falling interest rates and continued economic growth would be tailwinds. The aforementioned catalysts are still in place — including interest rate cuts, as investors discovered a day earlier. Until then, the firm believes bank stocks can outperform into the first-quarter earnings season. 6 regional bank stocks worth buyingThe continued rally in financials will be powered in large part by regional banks, BofA believes. "We see the capital markets momentum continuing into 2025, which should drive investor interest in both stocks," Poonawala wrote.
Persons: Financials, Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonawala, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jamie Dimon Organizations: of America, Business, Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, First Bancorp, FNB Corp, Truist, US Bancorp, Western Alliance, JPMorgan, Wall, titans Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
The fund manager hasn't departed from the offense-defense strategy he outlined last summer, and he's still confused as to why more of his counterparts haven't followed suit. Related storiesThe top fund manager added: "So that leads people to this conclusion that maybe I should just index and put it all in the S&P 500. Diversifying in these ways reduces risk while improving returns, the fund manager said. There are several considerations when looking at corporate bonds, Miller said, including the issuing company's debt load, cash flow, and industry. After explaining his process for selecting corporate bonds, Miller mentioned a few companies with attractive debt.
Persons: David Miller didn't, Miller, Morningstar —, hasn't, he's, haven't, you'd, that's, , Miller doesn't Organizations: Systematic Alpha Fund, Business, Retail, Catalyst Funds, BNP, Constellation Brands, Modelo, McDonald's, HCA Healthcare Locations: Europe, Japan, Corona
Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets was one of the market's most bullish strategists heading into 2024. Market breadth is markedly better in the last few months, according to BMO Capital Markets. For most of 2023, US stocks were disproportionately driven by growth stocks, specifically a handful of top performers. BMO Capital MarketsBelow are 20 stocks with an outperform rating from BMO Capital Markets that look attractive due to their GARP, quality, or value attributes. Along with each name is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, and group or groups that it fits into, according to BMO Capital Markets.
Persons: Brian Belski, It's, Belski, Sharpe Organizations: Business, BMO Capital Markets, Bank, BMO Capital, BMO
Eight economists, investment chiefs, and strategists that Business Insider recently spoke to credited healthier-than-anticipated consumer balance sheets and spending for the continued expansion. "Either that, or they're going to be maxed out — they can't get any more money. They're not going to have any liquidity to be able to continue to do the things they're going to do." He's also sticking with defensive stocks as consumer spending softens, including those in the consumer staples sector like Clorox (CLX) and Procter & Gamble (PG). Real estate is a "hated asset class" that's negatively correlated with interest rates, Sekera said.
Persons: shouldn't, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, they're, Sue Crotty, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clark Bellin, Bellin, David Rosenberg, They're, Rob Swanke, Swanke, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Christopher Barto, Gordon, Clissold, He's, Morningstar's Sekera, Crotty, Segal Marco Advisors, She's, Barto, that's Organizations: Business, Consumers, Segal Marco, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Commonwealth Financial Network, Nasdaq, Morningstar, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Procter, Gamble, Federal Reserve, Exxon, APA Corp, Duke Energy, Segal, Energy, Healthcare Locations: Devon, Real, NiSource
Companies that Wall Street analysts disagree about tend to outperform over time. Here are 30 stocks that analysts are split about right now, according to UBS. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Groupthink is prevalent everywhere, including on Wall Street. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Organizations: Companies, Wall, UBS, NEW, Service, Business
Wall Street was mostly upbeat about equities heading into 2023, though even the most bullish investment firms thought the S&P 500 would finish this year at 5,100 — a level it has exceeded already. Resisting this rally is a fool's errand, according to David Keller, the chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. The long-time chartmaster warned of a near-term pullback as the S&P 500 approached its previous record high but has since abandoned his cautious call. AdvertisementFast-forward to early March, and many of those mega-cap growth names remain hot, especially Nvidia and Meta. "I like that idea, at this point, of diversifying away from mega-cap growth," Keller said.
Persons: , David Keller, chartmaster, Keller, I'm, they've, StockCharts.com Organizations: Service, Business, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Companies, Hilton, Marriott, Restaurant Brands, Burger King ., Biotechnology Locations: Burger
WBD generated $6.2 billion of free cash flow through 2023 and likely shelled out around $1.4 billion of that for NBA games. Analysts estimate that figure would be closer to $2 billion if WBD re-ups its NBA package. WBD wants a big NBA deal, despite Wall Street's wishesSixteen months ago, Zaslav said WBD didn't "have to have" the NBA. NBA ratings have been lackluster lately, with national TV games averaging 1.6 million viewers in the last two seasons. Zaslav's latest public remarks on the NBA negotiations reflect that.
Persons: , Shaquille O'Neal, Charles Barkley, Tim Nollen, Max, Jason Bazinet, WBD, David Zaslav, it's, Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Wall, Zaslav, John Hodulik, Chuck, Ernie Johnson Organizations: Service, Basketball Hall of Famers, NBA, TNT, ESPN, Warner Bros, Business, Media, Amazon, NBC, Comcast, Apple, Netflix, WWE, Macquarie, Disney, Fox, Cable, Citigroup, Warners, of America, Street, Zaz, UBS Locations: Shaq
Read previewFund manager Randy Gwirtzman may be hungry for fast-growing stocks, but he's no gambler. Gwirtzman carefully handpicks his stocks and then is patient with them, even if they're on the market's bad side. How to maximize returns while limiting riskWhen searching for stocks, Gwirtzman keeps his strategy simple. AdvertisementInstead of straying away from riskier stocks, Gwirtzman and his co-manager take steps to mitigate risk. Another way Gwirtzman manages risk is by strategically selling when an investment hits a certain price target or valuation threshold.
Persons: , Randy Gwirtzman, Gwirtzman, downturns, Laird Bieger Organizations: Service, Business, Nvidia, Discovery Fund, Baron Discovery Fund Locations: riskier
Spring is just around the corner, and the same may be true of a housing market revival. Housing inventory is starting to rise alongside temperatures, according to a just-released report from Realtor.com. Researchers at the listings site noted in a March 5 announcement that US active property listings rose 14.8% in February from 2023, while new listings jumped 11.3%. The jump in property listings was widespread, as it occurred in 29 of the 50-largest US cities, according to Realtor.com. 25 cities where cheaper-than-average houses are prevalentBelow are the 17 US real estate markets where houses are cheaper than the national median of $415,500, and inventory growth is also positive.
Persons: Realtor.com, haven't Organizations: Realtor.com, Business, homebuyers
The research director at Westfield Capital Management is instead focused on finding attractive stocks through a bottom-up fundamental process. Many companies have been abandoned in this top-heavy market, Meyers said. Instead of calling for a meltdown for the market's favorite companies, Meyers emphasized the stocks destined to rebound once investors shift their focus away from pricey growth names. "We don't overpay for growth for the sake of growth," Meyers said. 5 top stocks to own nowInvestors searching for small-cap stocks to buy are in the right place.
Persons: , Ethan Meyers, Meyers, Morningstar, that's, " Meyers, there's, you've, Kevin Rendino, it's, We're, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Westfield Capital Management, Growth, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: Westfield
Large-cap fund managers are starting to shy away from several of the biggest companies in the S&P 500, according to a recent report from UBS. By bailing on those three names and top performers like Nvidia (NVDA), money managers are swimming against the tide. That's why large-cap stock-pickers tend to fade the biggest companies, according to UBS. 10 stocks that fund managers loveBy contrast, fund managers' largest relative overweight positions are in sectors like industrials, financials, healthcare, and materials, Palfrey noted. Below are the 10 companies that are seeing the biggest improvements in sentiment from large-cap fund managers, as measured by the net number of funds adding positions to them.
Persons: Patrick Palfrey, Palfrey Organizations: UBS, Microsoft, Apple, Business, Nvidia
Renters have more options as new apartment buildings come online faster. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The median cost of staying in a one-bedroom apartment in the US this month was 0.7% less than in 2023, the biggest drop since October 2020. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: , that's Organizations: Service, Business
In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management
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